Sunday, 1 October 2017

NFL Ones To Watch - Week Four.

Well, Week three made a lot of people look stupid, Ravens ruined accumulators, Browns were favourites to win, [and still found a way to lose] and most of my predictions turned out to be wrong. My total for predictions stands at : 5 - 9 [Better than I thought] !
Hopefully week four will be more regular, but it did prove that anything can [and usually does] happen on any given Sunday.

This week I'm focusing on the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars as they fly to take on the New York Jets.

Jacksonville arrive fresh off arguably the best result in franchise history, and have a winning record again although they will like to beat the Jets as the last time they faced, they had a narrow loss [23 - 28]. The Jags roll into this one with the 13th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defence, 23rd ranked passing unit and their rushing game is ranked 5th. With the Jets being particularly vulnerable to the rush [133 yards per game] and having achieved 140 [yards per game] on the ground The Jets seem to face a slight uphill battle as far as that goes. Marcedes Lewis TE had a huge game last weekend and will be looking to continue the momentum he looks to have accrued. Lewis only managed three touchdowns between 2014 [2] - 2016 [1] and has already equalled that total after last weekends outburst , although he looks far removed from his 10 TD campaign back in 2010 , there's no reason he shouldn't come close to that by the time this season has finished. Leonard Fournette RB is showing off some of the skills that convinced the Jags to pick him in the 1st round [4th] and has 57 carries for 199 yards [3.5 ypc] for three TDs. The yardage will likely come to the rookie the more he plays and gets comfortable within the system, but his real value should come in following seasons long term, the O line can be built around what they have now but for this week and the here and now's of it all, useful enough to keep the opponents guessing, and in short yardage plays will certainly provide more than enough first downs as they keep the chain moving.

The Jets meanwhile have struggled through their opening three games and enter at 1-2, and they have the 30th ranked offense, 24th ranked defence, 27th ranked passing game and their rushing is 23rd. Their decision to roll with Josh McCown to open the season, might have raised some eyebrows across the league, but so far he's been quite productive with 60/86 for 602 yards [an average of 7 yards per completion] with three TDs. The Jaguars D is the stingiest when it comes to passing yards allowed but Mccown is no stranger to facing against the odds as his early career playing time can attest to. When given a chance he's always performed quietly , solidly if unspectularly but sometimes in the pressure cooker of Quarterbacking, it's a sound strategy and could prove to be the deciding factor in this match up.
WR Jermaine Kearse has always been there or there abouts on receiving cores has largely struggled to make huge inroads week to week, but again has solid consistent numbers, and has 14 receptions for 165 yards on the season [averaging just shy of 12 yards per reception] with a pair of scores. It could be a breakthrough week for the duo in terms of cultivating an understanding but they badly need an end game this week to avoid a 1-3 start. Kearse also rushed twice in his career to date [back in 2014] but if the situation calls for it, he'd be more than capable of providing both a chance of pace from the backfield, and a different style.

Defence could take over here though, and it will be interesting to see how Jacksonville handled the journey back from London to New York as usually they'd have a bye week following such a game.



My picks for the week are: Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars*, Patriots, Lions, Falcons, Steelers, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Raiders, Seahawks and Chiefs.

Finally, my play of the week goes to Philadelphia Eagles K Jake Elliot for his 61 yard game winning Field Goal [against a bitter NFC East rival no less]. 

Sunday, 24 September 2017

NFL Ones To Watch - Week Three

This week sees the first trip to England of the season and outside of that some fascinating inter conference battles take place on Sunday. The Giants take on the Eagles, the Dolphins will look to keep their opening win momentum as they tackle the Jets [good luck] and the Panthers face the Saints.

The game I'm going to be focusing on this week sees Oakland's Raiders take on Washington's football team.

Oakland [2-0] have been impressive in the early going and will look to continue on their upward trend and are clearly a better team with Derek Carr [QB] front and centre. The last time these teams faced each other, [2013] resulted in a Washington victory [24-14] but both franchises look very different from then as Robert Griffin III took on Matt Flynn [who was filling in for Terrelle Pryor] .
Oakland have the 4th ranked Offensive unit, 15th ranked defensive unit, 13th ranked passing game and 5th ranked rushing game. They also so far have averaged 35.5 points per game and as Washington allow less than 90 yards on the ground so far, this could be a sterner test. Their main chances will be to tackle the passing game and utilise the speed and quickness of Derek Carr [45/60 492 yards 5TDs] and will be keen to continue feeding Michael Crabtree [12 receptions 163 yards (at an average of 13.6 yards per catch) with 3 TDs. and with Washington allowing 266.5 passing yards this certainly appears to be the main weakness to exploit. It's not their only threat and if Marshawn Lynch who looks increasingly refreshed in Oakland goes into beast mode it could be a very long afternoon for Washington's defensive unit.

Washington's task is not made easier with the figures that Oakland allow 200 yards per game through the air and 110 on the ground perhaps former QB Terrelle Pryor [8 receptions for 97 yards averaging 12.1 yards per reception] can be found for some magic. On the ground Rob Kelley seems to be the workhorse as he's accumulated 22 carries for 108 yards [almost 5 ypc] although hasn't punched it in just yet. Those ground scores have gone to Chris Thompson from 6 carries for 81 yards scoring twice. Thompson also snagged a score through the air. Washington have managed 22 ppg, 324.5 total yards , 178 through the air and 146.5 on the ground (all on average).
Washington come into this week with one win and one loss.

For the first time, I'm going to add predictions for all games this weekend [only to win] and these teams are :
Ravens, Browns, Eagles, Dolphins, Broncos, Panthers, Steelers, Falcons , Buccaneers, Patriots, Titans, Packers, Chiefs and Cardinals.

The second play of the week honour goes to Aqib Talib and his 103 yard INT Pick 6. Honourable mentions go to Todd Gurley, Zack Ertz, Drew Brees 300 yard game, Aaron Rodgers 200th Career TD. and Kareem Hunt.

Enjoy Week Three and see you next time ! 

Sunday, 17 September 2017

NFL Ones To Watch - Week Two

Week One is in the books and how sweet it is that Football has returned ! All the clubs around the league will be wondering if Week One was a sign of what's to come this season, or an outlier in terms of results that wont often happen.  For some it was a relief from their usual cellar dwelling experiences and they will be keen to explore more of this thing called Winning.

Anyway, the game I've chosen to keep an eye on this week is an intriguing [to me at least] battle between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Chicago Bears [0-1].

The Buccs will be keen to get off to a winning start following their week one Postponement, and I wish all the people caught up in Hurricane Irma the best at this time. The Bears however were inches away on several occasions from coming up with a W, but it wasn't to be as several 4th Quarter drops proved costly although last years beaten Super Bowl finalists Atlanta showed no Super Bowl hangover, it wasn't the same story over in Foxborough as Tom Brady's team scuffled out of the gate and eventually got turned over 42-27, there's still a long way to go yet.

Chicago had a few players that deserve recognition last week and RB Tarik Cohen was one of them. Cohen was all over the field and made 8 receptions for 47 yards and a TD [averaged 5.9 yards per reception] kept the chains moving through the air, while on the ground was even better with 5 carries for 66 yards [13.2 yards per carry] although didn't cross the end zone. Akiem Hicks was the shining light defensively however with 2.0 sacks from three total tackles [0 assisted]. The Bears also gave up 301 total yards last week with 125 coming via the rushing game, and as the Buccs somewhat struggled to punch it in via the ground last season, could serve as a building block that if the run game is stifled, Jameis Winston [TB QB] could be rushed which could force more turnovers.

Usually at this point, I'd highlight possible keys to victory to TB during their previous games [or season stats to date] but there aren't any to this point but their chances to win will be bolstered with Mike Evans being out there, and with Winston having another season of experience to call upon their understanding will be greater, and although not a 2 man team, will be relying heavily upon these two for any successes. Although they will also be hoping for more production from the running backs, as they only managed to get over the goal line a handful of times so to get double digits on the ground would add an extra dimension to the [by comparison] young O Line.

A new feature this season sees me pick a play of the week from the previous round of fixtures ,and the very first winner of this award goes to : Tashaun Gibson, as he snags an errant pass for a 67 yard interception return setting up a short field for the Jaguars to kill the game off with less than 4 minutes on the clock. Other great plays include a behind the back catch for Jason Witten of the Cowboys, Carson Wentz evading a sure sack for the Eagles and Mike Daniels strip of QB Russell Wilson which set up the decisive score in the Packers defeat of the Seahawks.

Week Two is sure to be a thrilling ride for many, for some they might want to get off and come back next week, but nobody really knows what is going to happen on any given Sunday [or Monday].