Sunday, 1 October 2017

NFL Ones To Watch - Week Four.

Well, Week three made a lot of people look stupid, Ravens ruined accumulators, Browns were favourites to win, [and still found a way to lose] and most of my predictions turned out to be wrong. My total for predictions stands at : 5 - 9 [Better than I thought] !
Hopefully week four will be more regular, but it did prove that anything can [and usually does] happen on any given Sunday.

This week I'm focusing on the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars as they fly to take on the New York Jets.

Jacksonville arrive fresh off arguably the best result in franchise history, and have a winning record again although they will like to beat the Jets as the last time they faced, they had a narrow loss [23 - 28]. The Jags roll into this one with the 13th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defence, 23rd ranked passing unit and their rushing game is ranked 5th. With the Jets being particularly vulnerable to the rush [133 yards per game] and having achieved 140 [yards per game] on the ground The Jets seem to face a slight uphill battle as far as that goes. Marcedes Lewis TE had a huge game last weekend and will be looking to continue the momentum he looks to have accrued. Lewis only managed three touchdowns between 2014 [2] - 2016 [1] and has already equalled that total after last weekends outburst , although he looks far removed from his 10 TD campaign back in 2010 , there's no reason he shouldn't come close to that by the time this season has finished. Leonard Fournette RB is showing off some of the skills that convinced the Jags to pick him in the 1st round [4th] and has 57 carries for 199 yards [3.5 ypc] for three TDs. The yardage will likely come to the rookie the more he plays and gets comfortable within the system, but his real value should come in following seasons long term, the O line can be built around what they have now but for this week and the here and now's of it all, useful enough to keep the opponents guessing, and in short yardage plays will certainly provide more than enough first downs as they keep the chain moving.

The Jets meanwhile have struggled through their opening three games and enter at 1-2, and they have the 30th ranked offense, 24th ranked defence, 27th ranked passing game and their rushing is 23rd. Their decision to roll with Josh McCown to open the season, might have raised some eyebrows across the league, but so far he's been quite productive with 60/86 for 602 yards [an average of 7 yards per completion] with three TDs. The Jaguars D is the stingiest when it comes to passing yards allowed but Mccown is no stranger to facing against the odds as his early career playing time can attest to. When given a chance he's always performed quietly , solidly if unspectularly but sometimes in the pressure cooker of Quarterbacking, it's a sound strategy and could prove to be the deciding factor in this match up.
WR Jermaine Kearse has always been there or there abouts on receiving cores has largely struggled to make huge inroads week to week, but again has solid consistent numbers, and has 14 receptions for 165 yards on the season [averaging just shy of 12 yards per reception] with a pair of scores. It could be a breakthrough week for the duo in terms of cultivating an understanding but they badly need an end game this week to avoid a 1-3 start. Kearse also rushed twice in his career to date [back in 2014] but if the situation calls for it, he'd be more than capable of providing both a chance of pace from the backfield, and a different style.

Defence could take over here though, and it will be interesting to see how Jacksonville handled the journey back from London to New York as usually they'd have a bye week following such a game.



My picks for the week are: Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars*, Patriots, Lions, Falcons, Steelers, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles, Buccaneers, Cardinals, Raiders, Seahawks and Chiefs.

Finally, my play of the week goes to Philadelphia Eagles K Jake Elliot for his 61 yard game winning Field Goal [against a bitter NFC East rival no less].